The World of Media According to Borrell
A 2013 Delphi Panel of experienced management in the media industry, anticipating media’s future in a study by Borrell, contributes to a future knowledge base that will have value in planning for what’s coming for media in the next decade and beyond.In short, and expanded some in the continuing text, an overview of the results according to the year the panel says they will take place, is summarized as follows:
- In 2018 it is 52% likely that real-time bidding will be responsible for half of all digital ad placements, and 61% likely that consumers will spend more on apps than they do on PC software
- In six years, 2019, it is 48% likely that the first broadcast network will convert to a cable or cable-like entity, says the report
- Seven years from today 2020, the panelists predict that it is 50% likely that major electronics retailers no longer stock desktop PCs
- In 2021, the Panel anticipates that it is 49% likely that 50 million U.S. households will drop cable in favor of online TV services; 49% likely that newspapers in the top 20 U.S. metros will publish four days or less, and 49% likely that the U.S. Postal Service will declare bankruptcy
- In nine years 2022, the panelists say that it is 45% likely that online political ad spending exceeds that spent for television
- Ten years from today, in 2023, it is thought that it is 42% likely that mobile video ad spending exceeds that spent for broadcast TV
For more information about this project, go to http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/203118/the-world-according-to-borrell.html#reply
